Last week we gave you three picks LSU (-1.5) over Florida, Arkansas over Alabama (-10.5), and Texas A&M (-2.5) over Ole Miss. Had it not been for our unwavering Aggie bias, we might have actually won all three games. Nevertheless, 2 out of 3 is respectable – just be wary of those Texas A&M picks.
This week is being dubbed as the week the SEC West finally loses a game. In case you didn’t know, the SEC West is a perfect 26-0 against teams outside of the SEC West. Complete, and utter dominance. This week that streak is in jeopardy as the top two teams from the East face the bottom two teams from the west.
Georgia, the #1 team in the East faces Arkansas, the #7 team in the West.
Kentucky, the #2 team in the East faces LSU, the #6 team in the West.
And if there was ever an indication of SEC West strength, it’s in the betting lines. Vegas only has #10 Georgia as a 3.5 point favorite. Meanwhile, Kentucky is nearly a 10 point underdog.
Elsewhere in the SEC, Texas A&M travels to Tuscaloosa for their 3rd top 10 matchup in as many weeks (that bye week can’t come soon enough). Ole Miss returns to The Grove to take on an overmatched Tennessee squad. Finally, Missouri travels to Florida in game pitting two teams coming off of devastating losses.
- Ole Miss – You’ve got to take the rebels here. Ole Miss is our can’t-miss bet of the week. While Tennessee did play Georgia surprisingly close, this squad is nowhere near the talent level that Ole Miss has. If they couldn’t score more than 9 points against Florida last week, do you really think they will post more than a touchdown against that Rebel defense? Not going to happen. So then you have to ask yourself if Ole Miss can score at least 23 points to cover. They have scored at least 23 points in every single game this season including a home win over Bama. Look for the Rebels win big on Saturday.
- Missouri – As one of my favorite writers, Clay Travis, put it, “I would not take Florida -6 against air.” Fantastic, and absolutely spot on. Since 2013, Missouri has been great against the spread and one of the best bets in Vegas. Florida on the other hand continues to under achieve and have posted a 2-3 record ATS. If it weren’t for some favorable officiating against Kentucky and a complete meltdown by Tennessee, Florida would be sitting 1-4 on the season. They simply are not good and will struggle once again on Saturday.