Gambling Guide: Edition 3

So apparently Gus Malzahn has forgotten how to cover a spread, Tennessee might actually be pretty good, and Missouri has proven to be the most unpredictable team in the SEC. A week after they inexplicably lost to Indiana, Missouri goes on the road and beats South Carolina straight up. The Tigers, who had been unable to move the ball all game, orchestrates two touchdown drives with less than 8 minutes to play and wins 21-20. Not only was it shocking, but it completely throws out all reason when you look at in-game competition thus far.

(unranked) Indiana > #24 Missouri > (unranked) South Carolina > #13 Georgia

I know, I’m confused too. Nevertheless, we got a great slate of games on Saturday and some fresh new gambling picks for you.

3rd Edition

  1. Alabama – I’ll keep this one short. Anytime you give Saban an extra week to prepare, he dominates. He is 3-0 against SEC competition following a bye week when his opponent does not have one. Such is the case with Ole Miss who struggled to put away Memphis last week. Bo Wallace is one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the league and has yet to face a defense even half as good as Bama. Saban rolls into The Grove and leaves with a 2 touchdown victory.
  2. Tennessee – A tale of two losses. Neither team will compete for the SEC East this year, but Saturday’s matchup will showcase just how far Florida has fallen and the impressive rebuild that Butch Jones is performing at Tennessee. But first we must dive into the two most telling games on each team’s schedule; both losses. Florida looked like it had turned the corner in its season opener with a 65-0 win over Eastern Michigan. Then Kentucky took them to overtime and Alabama crushed them 42-21. Meanwhile, Tennessee has looked more and more impressive with each passing game despite two losses. They were overmatched on the road against both Oklahoma and Georgia, but they made life tough for both (Georgia barely escaped with a 35-32 win). Tennessee is a team on the rise, and they will get their first statement win of the season on Saturday.
  3. Texas A&M – The Aggies are the underdogs this weekend, and Sumlin would have it no other way. He loves when people doubt and he thrives when he gets bulletin board material. The analysts doubted A&M in the season opener against South Carolina. After the Aggies shell shocked them, people wrote it off as a fluke. Then the Arkansas game approached and the media touted Arkansas’ huge offensive line and running game claiming that A&M did not have the athletes or size to stop them. Well a huge shoutout to Strength and Conditioning Coach Larry Jackson for having the players in shape and ready. Because when the 4th quarter hit, you could tell who had energy in the tank and who was completely spent. The Aggies rallied down 14 and pulled off the comeback in overtime. Now once again, everyone is picking against the Aggies. A bunch of non-believers if you ask me. And like I said before, Sumlin likes it that way. The key matchup to watch for on Saturday will be A&M’s passing offense (#5 in NCAA) against MSU’s passing defense (124th in NCAA). If OC Jake Spavital has even a decent play-calling day, the Aggies should have no problem leaving Starkville with a victory.

 

So these are the picks this week. Comment below if you think we missed something or click on the polls to make your own picks.



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4 thoughts on “Gambling Guide: Edition 3”

  1. Miss St is better than A&M.
    Josh Robinson put up 197 yards on LSU in addition to Dak’s 100+ on the ground.
    Arky put up 285 rushing yards (245 with their RBs) on A&M vs State’s 302 on LSU.

    I understand LSU is an inferior squad, but defensively they rank better against the run allowing 162 rush yards per game vs A&M’s 210. That includes a 169 yard rushing game A&M held SC to without Mike Davis and LSU’s contest with Wisconsin who’s Melvin Gordon put up 140 rush yards.

    I do not see how A&M can beat Miss St. with Dak adding to that run threat.

    However, if we can get through Miss St. we can run the tables in the SEC west…never thought that phrase would come out of my mouth. Oh College Football.

    Gig ’em
    Drew

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    1. If A&M plays anything close to how they did against South Carolina, they will win. But if the same offense that showed up for 3 quarters against Arkansas shows up again, we’re in for a long day. The two key matchups in the game is State’s rushing attack vs A&M’s rushing defense (like you pointed out and the focal point of every analyst this week). But the other key matchup involves State’s SEC worst pass defense against the Aggies SEC best pass offense. The Aggies can exploit that secondary just as badly, if not worse, than Miss St will be able to run.

      And while they Aggies still give up plenty of rushing yards like they did last year, they’ve been keeping opponents out of the endzone much better. It’s a bit reminiscent of the 2012 defense. Miss St will get their yards, definitely not going to argue that. But the Aggies should be able to get off the field on critical 3rd downs and give our offense plenty of opportunities to score.

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  2. Yes, I conveniently left State’s pass defense out of my analysis. What do you make of Hill missing his targets last week? If he is off again and we are in a big hole at the half, do you put Allen in?

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    1. I think it was a lack of focus honestly. They seemed to just be going through the motions until the 4th quarter last week. But it wasn’t just bad passes. Several dropped balls contributed to stalled drives. O-line played pretty poor too. Honestly, I felt like it was the worst offensive showing since Sumlin has been here….and we still escaped with a W.

      Gotta ride Kenny Hill through the good and bad. He won’t always be perfect. But if you take him out for Kyle when he underperforms, you’re gambling with players confidence.

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